In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (June 9, 2016), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie examines the final action date movements in the July 2016 Visa Bulletin and his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

EB-4 and Certain Religious Workers (SR) Preference Categories. As previously predicted, and noted in the July Visa Bulletin, a cut-off date of January 1, 2010 will be imposed in July for EB-4 Mexico. This is the same cut-off date imposed earlier this fiscal year for EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. There will be no forward movement in these categories prior to the end of the fiscal year. Despite the cut-off date in these categories, it is expected that EB-4 Mexico will become current in October and EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras should advance to a 2015 cutoff date. A more precise prediction of the cut-off cannot be made until pending demand in September is reviewed. Charlie predicts that a cutoff date for EB-4 India will need to be imposed for August.

Family-Based Projections. FB-4 China, which shared the FB-4 Worldwide final action date until retrogressing in June to January 1, 2003, will remain at that cut-off date through July. Last month, Charlie raised the possibility of advancement in FB-4 China before October. Of course, any forward movement this fiscal year would require a decrease in demand in the FB-1, FB-2, and FB-3 preference categories. Once there is an infusion of new visa numbers in October, it is expected that the category will recover to the prior cut-off date of July 2003 no later than November.

Similar to FB-4 China, FB-4 India recently tracked the FB-4 Worldwide final action date until it retrogressed in June . However, unlike FB-4 China, the final action date for FB-4 India will definitely remain at January 1, 2001, through September. Charlie predicts that FB-4 India will advance to the former July 2003 cutoff date early in the next fiscal year, but expects that recovery to happen more slowly than for FB-4 China. Charlie anticipates that the FB-4 India date will reach late 2002 for October, and may fully recover to July 2003 by the end of the calendar year.

China EB-2 and EB-3. In June, the final action date for both EB-2 and EB-3 China retrogressed to January 1, 2010. Charlie reminds us that there will be no forward movement in either of these categories this fiscal year.

EB-2 Worldwide and India. It is likely that a cut-off date will be imposed for EB-2 Worldwide by September due to sustained high demand. In May alone, 4,300 EB-2 numbers were used worldwide (including PRC and EB-2 India demand). The impetus for this demand is unclear; it is unlikely the result of EB-3 upgrades, since the EB-3 date has essentially been “current” for a long time. In May, Charlie allocated EB-2 numbers to more than 1,400 applicants with priority dates of 2014 and earlier.

Charlie anticipates EB-2 India’s final action date will be one week beyond EB-3 India through the rest of the fiscal year. Based on current usage, there should be sufficient available unused EB-3 numbers worldwide to enable moderate forward movement in India EB-3 in the month of September.

Cutoff Date for China and India EB-1 Expected by End of Fiscal Year. In May alone, Charlie received requests for approximately 4,000 EB-1 numbers worldwide (including China and India). Members should expect to see a cut-off date imposed for China EB-1 and India EB-1 this fiscal year in either August or September. Both categories are expected to become current again in October. A cut-off date will not be imposed for EB-1 Worldwide (i.e., rest of the world, besides India and China) this fiscal year.

You may access the July 2016 Visa Bulletin here and the June 2016 Visa Bulletin here.