In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (December 17, 2018), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie’s comments on the first quarter of this fiscal year are limited due to insufficient data, but we look forward to more specific predictions on demand trends and date movement in the coming months.    

Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: December 17, 2018

Final Action Date Movements Largely Track Those of Q1 FY2019

With only modest movement in the employment-based preference categories for the first quarter of the fiscal year, we were hoping to see more dramatic forward movement in some of these categories starting with the January 2019 Visa Bulletin.  However, movement tracks similarly to what we experienced during the first quarter.

As of now, Charlie does not have sufficient data to know whether the current demand trend will continue into January so he is unable to comfortably predict final action date movements in the near term.  While Charlie initially hoped to publish specific projections in the January Bulletin, he now expects to publish projections in the February Visa Bulletin.

Since final action dates in several employment-based categories retrogressed during the final months of FY2018, demand in the first quarter was generally high across these categories, and applications which were unable to be processed for a few months are now coming through the pipeline.  Charlie is concerned that demand data may be artificially high and not reflect the true level of future demand.  He will continue to cautiously monitor demand levels over the next few weeks to assess whether this is a true trend and will make predictions accordingly.

Strike While the Iron is Hot!

It has been fortunate that USCIS has decided to accept adjustment of status applications based on the “Dates for Filing” through the first quarter of FY2019. It is Charlie’s understanding that USCIS will announce as early as Monday, December 17, that it will continue to follow the Dates for Filing for applications in January, but that the Final Action Dates may apply as early as February after that.  (Editor’s note: USCIS’ site on dates of filing appears to continue to track the dates for filing in the January 2019 DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS.   Therefore, applicants wishing to take advantage of the more liberal “Dates of Filing” should do so while that window of opportunity is open.  Interestingly, for both EB-3 China and India, the Dates for Filing for surpass those for EB-2.  This creates the potential for downgrade filings which may not be available after January.

Note: As always, as final action date movements can be unpredictable, it is critical for clients to file their applications to adjust status or to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letter as soon as they are eligible to do so.

Programs that Will Sunset if Not Reauthorized

The EB-4 Religious Workers (SR) and EB-5 categories (I5 and R5) will sunset on December 21, 2018 unless reauthorized by Congress.  They are therefore listed as unavailable for January 2019.  The Visa Bulletin lists the final action dates that will apply to these categories, should they be reauthorized.

National Visa Center Filing Statistics Released

The January Visa Bulletin cites to an NVC report of immigrant visa applicants for both family-based and employment-based preference categories that were registered at the NVC as of November 1, 2018.

You may access the December 2018 Visa Bulletin here and the January 2019 Visa Bulletin here.

___________________________

Alka Bahal is a Partner and the Co-Chair of the Immigration Practice of Fox Rothschild LLP, specializing in corporate immigration law and compliance.  Alka is situated in Fox Rothschild’s Morristown, New Jersey office though she practices throughout the United States and at Consulates worldwide.  You can reach Alka at (973) 994-7800, or abahal@foxrothschild.com.

In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (September 13, 2018), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie comments on the close of this fiscal year and the recovery in certain categories at the start of FY2019, provides his predictions on final action date movement in the coming months, and answers questions from the public.

Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: September 13, 2018

On September 14, 2018, USCIS announced that it would accept adjustment of status applications based on the “Dates for Filing” chart for both family-based and employment-based cases.  Since Charlie sets the “Dates for Filing” based on where he expects the final action dates will be in the next 8 to 12 months, these charts are also helpful in understanding how far the final action dates are likely to advance in the near term.

Family-Based Preference Categories

Since most family-based cases are processed at Embassies/Consulates, Charlie’s visibility into family-based demand is good, which avoids dramatic fluctuations in the final action dates.  These categories are expected to advance modestly or hold steady, except Mexico.  Given lower than anticipated demand members may see the Mexico family-based categories move more rapidly than normal.  Demand from China continues to be relatively low, whereas India demand has rebounded over the past year.

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1:  For October, EB-1 Worldwide along with all other countries except China and India, advances ten months to April 1, 2017.  Charlie remains pessimistic that the EB-1 Worldwide final action date will advance before the end of this calendar year.  He forecloses the possibility of advancement in November and is pessimistic that there will be advancement in December but notes that there will be some forward movement in all EB-1 categories after the beginning of 2019.  Demand is sufficiently high that Charlie is unable to predict at this time whether this category will become current in FY 2019.  Charlie does not expect any advancement of EB-1 China or EB-1 India before January 2019 and believes it is “almost guaranteed” that both categories will be subject to a final action date through the fiscal year.

EB-2 and EB-3 Worldwide:  As previously predicted, EB-2 Worldwide and EB-3 Worldwide will return to current in October and will remain current for the foreseeable future and well into the next calendar year.  Charlie has not seen expected growth in EB-3 Worldwide.

EB-2 China and EB-3 China:  While EB-2 China recovers to April 1, 2015 in October, it will not surpass the EB-3 China final action date, which advances to June 1, 2015.  It is unclear whether EB-3 China’s two-month lead will be significant enough to spur downgrade demand.  If there are not as many downgrades, EB-3 China could advance more rapidly than expected.  Charlie has no visibility into EB-3 China “downgrade” demand until a visa number is requested, so this category may move modestly to avoid future retrogression.

EB-2 India and EB-3 India:  EB-2 India advances to March 26, 2009 in October, with EB-3 India trailing behind by less than three months at January 1, 2009.  Based on the dates for filing and depending on the level of demand in each of these categories, it is possible that EB-3 India may surpass EB-2 India at some point this fiscal year.

EB-3 Philippines and Other Workers Philippines:  As predicted, EB-3 Philippines and Other Workers Philippines will recover to June 1, 2017 in October. Nnly minimal movement during the first quarter of the fiscal year is expected.

EB-4:  As predicted, EB-4 Mexico will fully recover in October to its June Visa Bulletin date of October 22, 2016, EB-4 India will return to current, and EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras remain at February 15, 2016 in October.  There will be forward movement in EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras this fiscal year, but anything more than minimal movement is unlikely in Q1.  Due to visibility into preadjudicated cases filed prior to the imposition of a final action date in May 2016, as well as potential future demand by cases with old priority dates, Charlie is moving this category conservatively to avoid a future retrogression.

EB-4 India:  It is expected that this category will be subject to a final action date again, but that will not likely happen until late in the fiscal year.

EB-5 Non-Regional Center:  for China and Vietnam will advance to August 15, 2014 and January 1, 2016 respectively in October.

EB-5 China:  Demand remains high, so members should not expect much movement in this category throughout the fiscal year.  EB-5 Vietnam, in contrast, is likely to advance modestly early in the fiscal year until it reaches its per country limit, at which time, its final action date will track EB-5 China.

Expiration of Two Visa Categories

Unless reauthorized by Congress, the EB-4 Religious Worker and EB-5 (I5 and R5) categories will be unavailable after September 30, 2018.  If Congress reauthorizes these programs, the EB-4 Religious Worker category will become current in October, except EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras which will have a final action date of February 15, 2016 and EB-4 Mexico, which will have an October 22, 2016 final action date.  If reauthorized, EB-5 Worldwide (I5 and R5) would become current, with EB-5 China (I5 and R5) subject to an August 15, 2014 final action date, and EB-5 Vietnam (I5 and R5) subject to a January 1, 2016 final action date.

QUESTION:  USCIS data from July 2018 indicates that there are only 473 pending applications for EB-3 India.  USCIS notes that this is for service centers only and doesn’t include field offices.  The number of EB-3 China cases is 161.  Do these numbers track to the information DOS is receiving from USCIS about pending demand?

CHARLIE’S RESPONSE: As these are USCIS statistics, I would suggest that you pose your question to USCIS.  However, I am told that the Service Centers have dramatically reduced their inventories as pending adjustment cases which were filed years ago have become current and were approved, and new cases are now being sent to field offices via the National Benefits Center (NBC).  If I were to speculate, the numbers posted likely represent only India and China cases that were pending and subject to a priority backlog on March 6, 2017, when USCIS started sending new cases to the NBC.  Therefore, it should be expected that the number of cases at the NBC and the field offices far exceeds those which remain at the Service Centers.

QUESTION: Can you explain why sometimes final action dates are the same for different countries in a certain preference category and why sometimes they are different?

CHARLIE’S RESPONSE: Whenever the total number of documentarily qualified applicants for an individual country or category exceeds the supply of numbers available for a particular month, it is considered to be “oversubscribed” and a final action date is established.  The final action date is the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who cannot be accommodated for a visa number.  For example, if the monthly allocation target for the China and India EB-2 preference categories were 250, and each country had demand in excess of 500, a final action date would be established so that only 250 numbers would be allocated.  In this case, the final action date for each country would be the priority date of the 251st applicant.  That date could be widely different based on EB-2 demand patterns for each country.

QUESTION: Using the EB-1 patterns we have observed over the past couple of years as an example, can you explain how “otherwise unused” numbers are allocated?

CHARLIE’S RESPONSE: Section 202(e) of the INA says that if there are “otherwise unused” employment numbers under the respective Worldwide preference limit, such numbers may be made available to those countries which have already reached the per-country preference limit.  In the past, EB-1 has been listed as “Current” for all countries for at least the first six months of each fiscal year because the worldwide level of demand at that time was insufficient to use all numbers available under the annual limit.  However, the “otherwise unused” numbers situation is constantly monitored, and subsequent changes in demand patterns can negatively impact the availability of future numbers to countries which had previously benefitted from their use.  Such increases in EB-1 Worldwide demand later in the year have eventually required the imposition of a final action date for EB-1 China and India to allow other countries that had not yet reached the per-country limit to remain “Current.”  Any remaining unused numbers are then made available strictly in priority date order without regard to country, and a single date would be applied.  That has been the case in past years when it has been necessary to apply a final action date to govern the use of a more limited amount of unused numbers (or none) available for use by China and India EB-1 applicants.  This is the reason why the October China and India EB-1 date is earlier than the Worldwide date, with both being required to govern number use within the overall annual limit.

You may access the September 2018 Visa Bulletin here and the October 2018 Visa Bulletin here.

___________________________

Alka Bahal is a Partner and the Co-Chair of the Immigration Practice of Fox Rothschild LLP, specializing in corporate immigration law and compliance.  Alka is situated in Fox Rothschild’s Morristown, New Jersey office though she practices throughout the United States and at Consulates worldwide.  You can reach Alka at (973) 994-7800, or abahal@foxrothschild.com.http://www.foxrothschild.com/alka-bahal/

In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (April 13, 2018), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie examines the dramatic final action dates movement in the April Visa Bulletin, which hold steady for May, and provides his predictions on final action date movement in the coming months.

Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: June 13, 2017

Given that USCIS takes roughly five months to process I-485 applications to completion, the dramatic final action date advancements in the April Visa Bulletin were not completely unexpected as the objective is to spur more applications in May and June in order to ensure that the full visa numbers will be used by the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2018.  Since it is unlikely that most May I-485 filings will be processed to completion before the end of the fiscal year, many employment-based preference categories hold their April final action dates in the May Visa Bulletin, with only modest advancements in a few select categories.  These advancements were made in an abundance of caution, based on data Charlie received from USCIS regarding the number of pending cases.

Categories in which final action dates will remain the same include:

  • EB-1 China and India;
  • EB-2 India;
  • EB-3 China and Philippines;
  • EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, and
  • EB-5 China.

There are only five categories with modest advancements-

  • EB-2 China will move forward one month to September 1, 2014;
  • EB-3 India will advance three months to May 1, 2008;
  • EB-3 Other Workers China and India will advance one and three months respectively, to May 1, 2007 and May 1, 2008; and
  • EB-4 Mexico will advance roughly five weeks to October 22, 2016.

As Charlie predicted, EB-5 Vietnam became oversubscribed, due to high demand, and will assume a final action date of July 22, 2014 in May, tracking to EB-5 China.

 Most family-based preference petitions are processed through the National Visa Center and U.S. consulates abroad, which accept applications based on the “filing date” rather than the final action date.  As a result, Charlie has excellent visibility into demand in these categories, enabling a slow and steady progression of the final action dates with much less volatility than is seen in the employment-based preference categories.  Final action dates advance modestly in May for all family-based preference categories, except FB-1 China, India and Worldwide, which hold at the April dates. T here is no retrogression in any of the family-based preference categories in May.

What can be expected in the coming months?

It is likely that most employment-based final action dates will hold at their May dates for the month of June with some changes possible in July.  What occurs is entirely dependent on demand that may materialize, and continuing consultations with USCIS.  The wildcard this year that could cause unanticipated fluctuations in the final action dates is the pace of USCIS field office processing of I-485s.

With regard to EB-1 China and India, it is too early to know whether the high worldwide EB-1 demand seen over the past few months is the result of a processing glut or sustained demand.  It is likely that EB-1 China and India will hold for at least another month, but Charlie will continue to watch demand to determine whether any advancements may be possible.

While Charlie is hopeful that the advancements made in April to EB-2 China will be sufficient to exhaust the visa numbers in this category, he continues to monitor China EB-3 downgrades and is likely to hold the final action dates in these categories for at least another month.  However, there still remains the possibility of some advancement later this fiscal year if the anticipated demand does not materialize.

As noted above, EB-4 Mexico advanced five weeks in May.  Although Charlie predicted a summer retrogression of this category to track to the final action date of EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, if demand lightens it may be possible to avoid or perhaps delay retrogression for EB-4 Mexico.

You may access the April 2018 Visa Bulletin here and the May 2018 Visa Bulletin here.

___________________________

Alka Bahal is a Partner and the Co-Chair of the Immigration Practice of Fox Rothschild LLP, specializing in corporate immigration law and compliance.  Alka is situated in Fox Rothschild’s Morristown, New Jersey office though she practices throughout the United States and at Consulates worldwide.  You can reach Alka at (973) 994-7800, or abahal@foxrothschild.com.

In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (April 16, 2017), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie offers his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories for the beginning of the next fiscal year (May 2017) and beyond.                                                                      

Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: April 16, 2017

FB-4 Worldwide. FB-4 Worldwide should be watched closely. Following aggressive movement of the final action date in April, this category is not expected to advance. The April movement seems to have stimulated applicants to take action, and increased demand may require a temporary retrogression in this category later this fiscal year. Should retrogression occur, the category would recover completely in October, the first month of the new fiscal year. The final action dates for all other family-based categories are expected remain stable.

EB-1 and EB-2 Worldwide. As noted in the May 2017 Visa Bulletin, EB-1 and EB-2 Worldwide demand at USCIS has increased dramatically over the past six weeks, signaling the possibility of a future correction to the final action date. Charlie explained that number usage in both of these categories for January and February was about 1,000 higher than earlier months and he expects that it will be at least that high, if not higher, in April. While this is positive in the sense that USCIS is clearing out and approving cases, it may limit the ability for the agencies to take final action on pending cases towards the end of the summer if a correction is required.

EB-1 India and China. Charlie has been predicting the imposition of a final action cut-off date for EB-1 China and India for several months and echoes that warning in the May Visa Bulletin. Charlie tells AILA that the only reason a final action cut-off date has not already been imposed is that thus far, India and China have been able to benefit from “otherwise unused numbers” not currently required for other countries. The use of “otherwise unused numbers” by these two countries will soon end in order to ensure that other countries who have not yet reached their EB-1 per country limit can remain “current.” The worldwide demand and heavy use of EB-4 and EB-5 numbers, which in earlier years had remained unused and had “fallen up” to EB-1, has resulted in the restriction of EB-1 number use strictly to those numbers available to that category on an annual basis.

Charlie predicts that a final action cut-off date will be imposed for EB-1 China and India no later than July. When that occurs, both countries will have the same final action date. While these categories will not technically become “unavailable,” the date that is imposed will effectively shut off the use of additional numbers.

EB-2 India. March demand for EB-2 India doubled from February. Based on this spike in demand, Charlie can no longer say with confidence that this category will recover to last year’s level. However, there may still be some room for the date to advance further, and based on current demand patterns, the absolute best case scenario would be for the final action date to reach December 2008. The wildcard factor is whether EB-3 upgrades will subside or continue at the same or faster pace. Charlie lacks visibility into EB-3 upgrade demand until a visa number is requested, and therefore cannot plan final action date movements with as much precision as he would like.

The China EB-3 Downgrade Phenomenon. The gap between EB-2 China and EB-3 China continues to widen in May, with EB-3 China advancing six months to October 1, 2014 and EB-2 China advancing less than one month to February 8, 2013. Consistent with this trend, AILA members should not expect any significant advancement in the final action date for EB-2 China this fiscal year. By contrast, we may continue to see a healthy advancement of EB-3 China until or unless the expected EB-3 downgrade phenomenon materializes.

Based on current data, Charlie predicts that the final action date for EB-2 China may advance as far as a date in spring or summer 2013 before the end of this fiscal year.

EB-4 Religious Workers and EB-5 Investors (I5 and R5). Both the EB-4 Religious Worker and EB-5 Investor Programs will sunset on April 28, 2017 unless reauthorized by Congress. As such, the May Visa Bulletin notes that both of these categories will be unavailable in May unless Congress acts. Should Congress reauthorize both programs, EB-4 will return to current with the exception of EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico, which would be subject to a July 15, 2015 final action date. With regard to these countries, and despite healthy demand, Charlie maintains that it is still possible that the final action date may advance before the end of the fiscal year.

If the Investor Program is reauthorized, all countries except China would become current, with a final action date of June 1, 2014 for EB-5 China (I5 and R5).

You may access the May 2017 Visa Bulletin here, the April 2017 Visa Bulletin here, and the March 2017 Visa Bulletin here.

___________________________

Alka Bahal is a Partner and the Co-Chair of the Corporate Immigration Practice of Fox Rothschild LLP. Alka is situated in Fox Rothschild’s Roseland, New Jersey office though she practices throughout the United States and at Consulates worldwide. You can reach Alka at (973) 994-7800, or abahal@foxrothschild.com.

In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (January 13, 2017), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie offers his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories for the beginning of the next fiscal year (October 2016) and beyond.                                                                                                   

Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: January 13, 2017

QUESTION: What can we expect in terms of movement of FB-2 Final Action Dates?

ANSWER: All of the family-based categories will continue to move at a rate that is consistent with the current pace. I do not expect any dramatic forward movement or slowing down in the coming months. FB-2A should continue to move an average of three weeks each month.

The only family-based categories which may change in terms of the rate of forward movement are the Philippines categories. There is very low demand for FB-2B and F-4 Philippines. Cut-off dates for the other Philippines FB categories have advanced at a faster pace initially, but if demand for FB-2B and F-4 starts to increase, movement in the other categories may start to slow.

F-4 China will reach the F-4 Worldwide date in March.

F-4 India will continue to move but is not expected to reach the F-4 Worldwide date until summer. If there are unused numbers from the other preference categories that fall down to F-4 India, the cut-off date may advance more quickly.

Movements in the family-based Final Action Dates may start to slow in the second half of the fiscal year. Updated projections will appear in the next Visa Bulletin.

QUESTION: Can we expect to see any movement in the “filing” dates during the fiscal year, or is movement generally confined to the beginning of the fiscal year?

ANSWER: I monitor these dates throughout the fiscal year and there may be some updates in the coming months. Changes in the filing dates tend to be more dramatic at the beginning of the fiscal year, but changes are sometimes required in the second half of the year based on demand patterns and future needs.

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. Number usage to date is higher than last year across the board.

EB-4 EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, HONDURAS AND MEXICO. Since our last column, Charlie has received information that potential demand for EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico prior to the current Final Action Date could be significant. For example, there are more than 1,500 pre-adjudicated applications for EB-4 El Salvador alone. Because there is already enough pre-adjudicated demand beyond the current date to reach the annual targets, the Final Action Date will continue to hold. If the date were to advance now and there was a subsequent flood of demand with earlier priority dates, this could cause the date to retrogress.

EB-1. Demand in this category remains strong and a cut-off date for EB-1 India and EB-1 China will need to be imposed later this fiscal year. Charlie will hold off doing so for as long as possible, but is confident that it will happen. When it does, members should not expect the date to retrogress quite as far back as last fiscal year when the date rolled back to 2010. Charlie continues to expect that the imposition of a Final Action cut-off date in these categories will be relatively short-lived and that EB-1 China and India will return to “Current” in October when the FY 2018 numbers become available.

EB-2. Tremendous demand resulting from EB-3 upgrades means EB-2 India will not advance in February and will likely hold at the current Final Action cut-off date of April 15, 2008 in March. If demand for EB-2 Worldwide remains strong, it is unlikely that EB-2 India will be able to benefit from any unused numbers and may be restricted to its 2,800 per country limit. If the trend in demand continues, EB-2 India is unlikely to recover to last year’s date. Members should not expect any significant movement in this category until at least July or August. Charlie continues to monitor this very closely. If the current surge in demand is not sustained, and Worldwide demand, or India demand with early priority dates subsides, more forward movement than what is currently projected may be possible.

Unlike EB-2 India, EB-2 China did advance somewhat to November 15, 2012 since demand in this category is not currently exceeding the monthly target.

EB-3. EB-3 Worldwide demand has subsided. The decrease in demand that allowed Charlie to advance the Final Action cut-off date earlier this fiscal year continues, and allowed him to advance the date again to October 1, 2016. While this trend may continue, due to current USCIS processing times, additional forward movements after March are unlikely to impact number usage in this category this fiscal year.

EB-3 China downgrades have not yet materialized at the level which had been experienced in past years. Nevertheless, Charlie is not advancing the Final Action date in this category significantly in an effort to avoid retrogression if demand from downgrades materializes in the coming months as expected.

Members should expect consistent forward movement in the EB-3 Philippines Final Action Date. Charlie expects this category to recover significantly but does not expect it to reach the Worldwide date.

EB-5. The EB-5 China categories should continue to advance at the rate of 1 to 2 weeks at a time.

You may access the February 2017 Visa Bulletin here and the January 2017 Visa Bulletin here.

___________________________

Alka Bahal is a Partner and the Co-Chair of the Corporate Immigration Practice of Fox Rothschild LLP. Alka is situated in Fox Rothschild’s Roseland, New Jersey office though she practices throughout the United States and at Consulates worldwide. You can reach Alka at (973) 994-7800, or abahal@foxrothschild.com.

In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (August 12, 2016), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie offers his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories through the remainder of this fiscal year (September 2016) and the beginning of the next (October 2016).                                                                                                           

Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: August 12, 2016

EB-2 and EB-3. Presently, the EB-2 Worldwide final action date lags behind EB-3 Worldwide, but this should not create the same EB-3 downgrade phenomenon we have witnessed in recent years in the China EB categories. According to Charlie, members should expect EB-2 Worldwide to become current again in October. Despite the uncharacteristically low demand in EB-3 Worldwide, members should not expect it to become current. Charlie is concerned that there is demand in this category that has not yet materialized.

As predicted last month, the final action date for EB-2 China and EB-3 China will remain the same through the remainder of this fiscal year. In October, EB-2 China is expected to advance to a date in late 2011 or early 2012. EB-3 China’s final action date is expected to reach late 2012 or early 2013. Therefore, it is likely that we will once again see the EB-3 downgrade phenomenon next fiscal year, at least until the increase in EB-3 China demand generated by the downgrades levels out demand between the two categories.

In October, EB-2 India will likely move to a date in early 2007. Slow movements of a few weeks at a time are anticipated for EB-3 India, which is likely to remain at a 2005 date in October. EB-3 India is the last category in which Charlie still has strong visibility (from the summer 2007 adjustment of status filings) into pre-adjudicated demand. As a result, there has not been any erratic movement in the final action date for this category in recent years.

EB-5 China. Charlie is unable to make any predictions at this time as to where EB-5 China dates will fall in the next fiscal year. He expects to have better information by late September to mid-October.

EB-1. It is expected that EB-1 India and EB-1 China, which both had final action cut-off dates imposed late this fiscal year, will become current again in October.

Family-Based Projections. There are some favorable modifications to last month’s predictions for September in the family-based categories. While Charlie thought the final action dates for F-2A and F-4 might require retrogression in September, an increase in returned unused visa numbers in July, and weak demand for these categories has allowed Charlie to hold these dates for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Charlie reports that the infusion of FY 2017 visa numbers will make EB-4 India and EB-4 Mexico current in October. The final action date for EB-4 El Salvador/ Guatemala/Honduras should move to a date sometime in the summer of 2015, and possibly beyond. Given the high applicant demand in this category for El Salvador relative to the other two countries, it is possible that we will see a more advanced final action date for Guatemala and Honduras.

Consistent with Charlie’s predictions last month, F-4 Worldwide advanced slightly. There were also minor advances in all of the family Worldwide categories, and all of the F-2B categories with the exception of F-2B Mexico. F-3 and F-4 Mexico and F-3 and F-4 Philippines also crept slightly ahead to close out the fiscal year.

The family-based categories tend to advance more consistently as the majority of demand in these categories materializes at consular posts. While we expect movements into the next fiscal year to also remain relatively steady, Charlie will continue to comply with the Administration’s Visa Modernization Proposal by advancing the dates as aggressively as possible in the first three quarters of the fiscal year. While doing so helps to ensure that number use is maximized, it also results in few numbers being available for use in the final quarter, which can cause retrogressions, such as those experienced in the F-4 China and India preference categories.

Filing Dates. As we approach the one year anniversary of the new Visa Bulletin format, Charlie did not have any predictions in terms of “filing dates” as he had not yet met with the CIS Ombudsman’s Office at the time of this discussion.

You may access the September 2016 Visa Bulletin here and the August 2016 Visa Bulletin here.

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Alka Bahal is a Partner and the Co-Chair of the Corporate Immigration Practice of Fox Rothschild LLP. Alka is situated in Fox Rothschild’s Roseland, New Jersey office though she practices throughout the United States and at Consulates worldwide. You can reach Alka at (973) 994-7800, or abahal@foxrothschild.com.

In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (June 9, 2016), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie examines the final action date movements in the July 2016 Visa Bulletin and his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

EB-4 and Certain Religious Workers (SR) Preference Categories. As previously predicted, and noted in the July Visa Bulletin, a cut-off date of January 1, 2010 will be imposed in July for EB-4 Mexico. This is the same cut-off date imposed earlier this fiscal year for EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. There will be no forward movement in these categories prior to the end of the fiscal year. Despite the cut-off date in these categories, it is expected that EB-4 Mexico will become current in October and EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras should advance to a 2015 cutoff date. A more precise prediction of the cut-off cannot be made until pending demand in September is reviewed. Charlie predicts that a cutoff date for EB-4 India will need to be imposed for August.

Family-Based Projections. FB-4 China, which shared the FB-4 Worldwide final action date until retrogressing in June to January 1, 2003, will remain at that cut-off date through July. Last month, Charlie raised the possibility of advancement in FB-4 China before October. Of course, any forward movement this fiscal year would require a decrease in demand in the FB-1, FB-2, and FB-3 preference categories. Once there is an infusion of new visa numbers in October, it is expected that the category will recover to the prior cut-off date of July 2003 no later than November.

Similar to FB-4 China, FB-4 India recently tracked the FB-4 Worldwide final action date until it retrogressed in June . However, unlike FB-4 China, the final action date for FB-4 India will definitely remain at January 1, 2001, through September. Charlie predicts that FB-4 India will advance to the former July 2003 cutoff date early in the next fiscal year, but expects that recovery to happen more slowly than for FB-4 China. Charlie anticipates that the FB-4 India date will reach late 2002 for October, and may fully recover to July 2003 by the end of the calendar year.

China EB-2 and EB-3. In June, the final action date for both EB-2 and EB-3 China retrogressed to January 1, 2010. Charlie reminds us that there will be no forward movement in either of these categories this fiscal year.

EB-2 Worldwide and India. It is likely that a cut-off date will be imposed for EB-2 Worldwide by September due to sustained high demand. In May alone, 4,300 EB-2 numbers were used worldwide (including PRC and EB-2 India demand). The impetus for this demand is unclear; it is unlikely the result of EB-3 upgrades, since the EB-3 date has essentially been “current” for a long time. In May, Charlie allocated EB-2 numbers to more than 1,400 applicants with priority dates of 2014 and earlier.

Charlie anticipates EB-2 India’s final action date will be one week beyond EB-3 India through the rest of the fiscal year. Based on current usage, there should be sufficient available unused EB-3 numbers worldwide to enable moderate forward movement in India EB-3 in the month of September.

Cutoff Date for China and India EB-1 Expected by End of Fiscal Year. In May alone, Charlie received requests for approximately 4,000 EB-1 numbers worldwide (including China and India). Members should expect to see a cut-off date imposed for China EB-1 and India EB-1 this fiscal year in either August or September. Both categories are expected to become current again in October. A cut-off date will not be imposed for EB-1 Worldwide (i.e., rest of the world, besides India and China) this fiscal year.

 

You may access the July 2016 Visa Bulletin here and the June 2016 Visa Bulletin here.

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Alka Bahal is a Partner and the Co-Chair of the Corporate Immigration Practice of Fox Rothschild LLP. Alka is situated in Fox Rothschild’s Roseland, New Jersey office though she practices throughout the United States and at Consulates worldwide. You can reach Alka at (973) 994-7800, or abahal@foxrothschild.com.

 

 

In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (November 12, 2015), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie examines the final action date movements in the December 2015 Visa Bulletin and provides his projections for monthly final action date movement through the first calendar quarter of 2016.

EB-2 India: In December, the final action dates for EB-2 India will advance ten months to June 1, 2007. This is largely the result of a necessary correction following a roll-back in the date at the end of last fiscal year. As noted in the Bulletin, Charlie projects that EB-2 India may advance monthly by as much as eight months over the course of the next few months. In speaking with AILA, Charlie mentioned that a monthly advancement of eight months would be the best case scenario, but that the actual advancement is likely to be around four to six months at a time. Charlie expects that this movement will spur EB-3 upgrades which will eventually impact demand, slowing EB-2 India advancement. He expects the upgrade demand will start to materialize in December/January which will slow advancement in early 2016. Should the demand fail to materialize at the expected rate, then the “up to eight” month movement could occur.

The EB-2 and EB-3 China Dynamic: The EB-2 China final action date will remain the same in December 2015 and Charlie does not anticipate much, if any movement in this category over the next few months as he already expects that number use will exceed the targeted usage for the first quarter of the fiscal year. Charlie received requests for 600 numbers in October and has already received approximately 200 requests for numbers to date in November. Therefore, holding the cut-off will allow the number use figure to fall back within the targeted level over a period of time.

Since the final action date for EB-3 China is later than the EB-2 China final action date, Charlie expects that some EB-2 China cases will downgrade to EB-3, which will take some of the demand pressure off of EB-2 China. This phenomenon has happened the last two years and ultimately results in increased EB-3 demand which slows movement or even retrogresses that category, while at the same time allowing EB-2 China to advance once again. Charlie expects this rebalancing to occur at some point next year, possibly as early as April.

F-2A and F-2B: Last year, the family-based 2B category advanced very quickly because the demand did not initially materialize. The dates have now advanced to the point where demand is materializing. A similar phenomenon is occurring with regard to F-2A. The agent of choice letters are not spurring sufficient demand, so until demand materializes, we can expect to see continued advancements in this category. As noted previously, the response rate is low in many of the family-based preference categories.

Impact of Addition of “Filing Dates” Concept: It is too soon to determine when the new process will begin to provide the Visa Office with better visibility into immigrant visa demand so as to even out priority date movements in the employment-based categories. While preliminary data does not suggest that the filing dates adopted by USCIS will show enough demand to be meaningful, the impact, if any, is not expected to be known until at least April 2016 when USCIS starts to request visa numbers based upon the October filings.

Coming Attractions . . .

  • Release of Revamped Foreign Affairs Manual (FAM): The December Visa Bulletin included an announcement that the State Department’s internal guidance, known as the Foreign Affairs Manual (FAM), will be replaced with 9 FAM-e, effective November 18, 2015. The new FAM upon release and updates will be available in the coming weeks.
  • Expect to See the “Visa Waiting List” in the January Visa Bulletin: Charlie and his team are currently compiling the “Visa Waiting List” which will provide information on the waiting list at the National Visa Center (NVC) as of November 1, 2015. An announcement should occur in next month’s Visa Bulletin, if not sooner.

You may access the November 2015 Visa Bulletin here and the December 2015 Visa Bulletin here.

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Alka Bahal is a Partner and the Co-Chair of the Corporate Immigration Practice of Fox Rothschild LLP.  Alka is situated in Fox Rothschild’s Roseland, New Jersey office though she practices throughout the United States and at Consulates worldwide. You can reach Alka at (973) 994-7800, or abahal@foxrothschild.com.

 

Confused as to when you may file an I-485 Application for Adjustment of Status?

Beginning with the October 2015 State Department Visa Bulletin additional information appears pertaining to when an intending immigrant may file an application for adjustment of status.  This is specifically relevant to those for whom a visa number is not immediately available, such as those in the EB-2 Category from China or India, or those in the EB-3 Category from China, India, Mexico or the Philippines, among others.

In particular, the Visa Bulletin now includes “Dates for Filing” along with “Application Final Action Dates”.  (Please see my blog post, “October 2015 Visa Bulletin Includes New “Dates for Filing of Visa Applications”; Immigrant Visa Availability Procedures Revised to Permit Possible Earlier Filings” for details.)

The Immigration Service (USCIS) stated from the outset that it “may” (not “will”) use the Dates for Filing Applications to determine when an application for adjustment of status may be filed.  But, what does this mean?  How can one tell when the Immigration Service will permit an I-485 filing based on the Dates for Filing of Applications?  The answer can be found on the Immigration Service’s website at http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo.

Here is a summary of the information:

  • Unless “otherwise stated” on the USCIS website, plan to use the Application Final Action Date.
  • The “otherwise stated” information will appear on the USCIS website in the following charts, which USCIS anticipates updating within a week of the State Department’s release of each months’ Visa Bulletin):
    • Current Month Adjustment of Status Filing Chart, and
    • Next Month Adjustment of Status Filing Chart.

Currently, both of these charts contains a statement noting that USCIS has determined that one may use the Dates for Filing Visa Applications chart.  So, for October 2015 and November 2015, the Dates for Filing Applications may be used.

Of course, these dates were significantly rolled back from the originally announced October 2015 dates. (See my blog post, “October 2015 Visa Bulletin:  Dates for Filing Revised, Rolled Back,” for details.)

Perhaps December’s Dates for Filing Visa Applications will be favorable.

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Ms. Wadhwani is a partner in the Immigration Practice Group at Fox Rothschild LLP.  She may be reached at cwadhwani@foxrothschild.com.