Last year at about this time, I published a blog post captioned, “FY 2015 H-1B Cap: What are the Odds?” (https://immigrationview.foxrothschild.com/h-1b-temporary-workers/fy-2015-h-1b-cap-what-are-the-odds/). According to my very basic calculations, I estimated that the odds of receiving one of the limited FY 2015 H-1B numbers was about 43% under the regular cap, with slightly better chances for those with a Master’s or higher degree. Overall, if you didn’t deducted the 20,000 advanced degree petitions from the total, chances were about 50/50.
For FY 2016, the odds are worse. This of course is due to an increased demand on the part of US employers. Indeed, the US Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) announced that it received “nearly 233,000 H-1B petitions” toward the FY 2016 cap. That is 60,500 more than last year, and more than enough to fill an entire year’s regular (non-advanced degree) cap if you deduct the numbers set aside for Chile and Singapore.
Simple math shows that the overall odds of receiving a number in the FY 2016 H-1B cap are about 34%. If you deduct the 20,000 advanced degree “winners” from the total 233,000 petitions, and re-calculate, the odds decrease to 27% for the remaining petitions which include both the unselected advanced degree petitions and the regular cap petitions.
USCIS completed its computer-generated random selection process (i.e., lottery) on April 13th. The I-797 receipt notices are beginning to arrive. Petitioning employers and potential H-1B workers anxiously await news of their fate. That may sound dramatic, but the reality is that of the approximately 233,000 H-1B cap-subject petitions filed for FY 2016, about 154,800 petitions will be rejected and returned. This is dramatic for the H-1B petitioning employers and prospective employees who are not winners in the lottery even though they presumably filed meritorious petitions.
Ms. Wadhwani is a partner in the Immigration Practice Group at Fox Rothschild LLP. She can be reached at email@example.com.