Recently, Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State’s Visa Office shared his impressions at this time regarding visa demand in preference categories and predictions for the remainder of FY2013 with AILA. This information is subject to change based on usage or new developments.
- The India EB2 cutoff date continues to see very little forward movement due to upgrades (EB3 to EB2 while maintaining the earlier priority date). In December 2012 alone, India EB2 had 125 cases approved that were from 2003 or earlier. Even looking at the current 2004 cutoff dates, EB2 India could easily reach the annual limit. However, the fall down from EB1 could allow for more numbers to be used for EB2 India.
- EB1 India and China appear to have used their numbers for this year, but the rest of open EB1 numbers can “fall across” to satisfy the need from India and China for EB1, so no retrogression is expected at this time.
- Current numbers indicate that there are approximately 42,000 India EB2 cases in line with priority dates prior to May 2010.
- There are 12,000 India EB3 cases with priority dates before January 2004. The Visa Office has very good information regarding how many India EB3 cases are lined up for the older dates, due to the 2007 retrogression. For example, there are 63 cases with a November 18, 2002 priority date. Accounting for demand in India EB3 has been pretty precise.
- EB-2 India demand continues to be very high, and it is possible that the cutoff date may be retrogressed during this fiscal year.
- India EB3 has 44,000 cases with priority dates before August 2007, which have been pre-adjudicated, though final approval and visa issuance has not taken place due to priority date retrogressions over the past several years.
The Visa Bulletin for April will be published mid-March.