In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).
Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (November 12, 2015), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.
This month, Charlie examines the final action date movements in the December 2015 Visa Bulletin and provides his projections for monthly final action date movement through the first calendar quarter of 2016.
EB-2 India: In December, the final action dates for EB-2 India will advance ten months to June 1, 2007. This is largely the result of a necessary correction following a roll-back in the date at the end of last fiscal year. As noted in the Bulletin, Charlie projects that EB-2 India may advance monthly by as much as eight months over the course of the next few months. In speaking with AILA, Charlie mentioned that a monthly advancement of eight months would be the best case scenario, but that the actual advancement is likely to be around four to six months at a time. Charlie expects that this movement will spur EB-3 upgrades which will eventually impact demand, slowing EB-2 India advancement. He expects the upgrade demand will start to materialize in December/January which will slow advancement in early 2016. Should the demand fail to materialize at the expected rate, then the “up to eight” month movement could occur.
The EB-2 and EB-3 China Dynamic: The EB-2 China final action date will remain the same in December 2015 and Charlie does not anticipate much, if any movement in this category over the next few months as he already expects that number use will exceed the targeted usage for the first quarter of the fiscal year. Charlie received requests for 600 numbers in October and has already received approximately 200 requests for numbers to date in November. Therefore, holding the cut-off will allow the number use figure to fall back within the targeted level over a period of time.
Since the final action date for EB-3 China is later than the EB-2 China final action date, Charlie expects that some EB-2 China cases will downgrade to EB-3, which will take some of the demand pressure off of EB-2 China. This phenomenon has happened the last two years and ultimately results in increased EB-3 demand which slows movement or even retrogresses that category, while at the same time allowing EB-2 China to advance once again. Charlie expects this rebalancing to occur at some point next year, possibly as early as April.
F-2A and F-2B: Last year, the family-based 2B category advanced very quickly because the demand did not initially materialize. The dates have now advanced to the point where demand is materializing. A similar phenomenon is occurring with regard to F-2A. The agent of choice letters are not spurring sufficient demand, so until demand materializes, we can expect to see continued advancements in this category. As noted previously, the response rate is low in many of the family-based preference categories.
Impact of Addition of “Filing Dates” Concept: It is too soon to determine when the new process will begin to provide the Visa Office with better visibility into immigrant visa demand so as to even out priority date movements in the employment-based categories. While preliminary data does not suggest that the filing dates adopted by USCIS will show enough demand to be meaningful, the impact, if any, is not expected to be known until at least April 2016 when USCIS starts to request visa numbers based upon the October filings.
Coming Attractions . . .
- Release of Revamped Foreign Affairs Manual (FAM): The December Visa Bulletin included an announcement that the State Department’s internal guidance, known as the Foreign Affairs Manual (FAM), will be replaced with 9 FAM-e, effective November 18, 2015. The new FAM upon release and updates will be available in the coming weeks.
- Expect to See the “Visa Waiting List” in the January Visa Bulletin: Charlie and his team are currently compiling the “Visa Waiting List” which will provide information on the waiting list at the National Visa Center (NVC) as of November 1, 2015. An announcement should occur in next month’s Visa Bulletin, if not sooner.